Supplemental Project:  Assessing Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability for Power Generation
“Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability for Power Generation” (1015484).  Climate change and increasing weather variability can potentially create shortages of high-quality fresh water in many regions of the United States.  The availability of such water is critical for thermoelectric power generation as well as hydroelectric generation.  EPRI has developed an analytical framework that can help individual companies evaluate the risk that water shortages could affect their power generation capability.  EPRI will customize and apply this framework to evaluate the vulnerability of individual power companies to climate-induced shortages in water availability.  The framework consists of four levels:

• The first level of analysis uses detailed watershed budgets to evaluate water availability.  Regional annual and seasonal inventories of water resources are assembled, and water requirements for electricity generation are also estimated and compared to other local water demands.  Based on this information, conditions under which significant water availability deficits might occur are identified and analyzed.
• The second level utilizes a mechanistic watershed simulation model and addresses potential impacts of climate variability (such as droughts and heat waves).  Climate scenarios are generated using random or directed selection of past weather patterns; these scenarios can then be used to identify climate-related risks to meeting electricity demands.  Simulations of strategies (e.g., water sharing agreements and water recycling) and technologies (e.g., atmospheric cooling and wet cooling tower water vapor capture) to mitigate these risks can also be evaluated.
• In the third level, outputs from global climate models are used to adjust current weather patterns by applying predicted average temperature and precipitation changes.  The adjusted weather patterns are used to drive the watershed model and evaluate the ability of different strategies and technologies to mitigate potential risks.
• The fourth level involves adding probabilistic analysis, in which physical watershed modeling is combined with statistical methods to quantify the risk of climate-induced water shortages.  Timescales of up to 80 years can be evaluated.

The price of the project depends on the size of a participant’s operations, the size and complexity of the watershed, the diversity and size of other stakeholders within the basins, and the level of analysis detail desired.  Anticipated prices range from $200,000 to $400,000.  EPRI will work with interested parties to provide a specific scope of work and a cost estimate.  Companies that fund any EPRI Environment Program can use tailored collaboration (TC) funds for up to half their contribution.  Companies that have not yet purchased any Environment Program may co-fund this project.  For more information, contact Robert Goldstein, (650) 855-2593, rogoldst@epri.com.