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Nuclear Features Prominently in EPRI Carbon-Constrained Scenario Analysis

A scenario analysis conducted by EPRI’s Energy Technology Assessment Center (ETAC) to evaluate the potential for significant carbon dioxide emission reductions from the U.S. electricity sector over the next 25-30 years leans heavily on nuclear power as a non-emitting generation source.

While the analysis did not uncover a “silver bullet” solution, it found that U.S. electric sector emissions could potentially be significantly reduced through reasonable but aggressive development and deployment of technologies in seven key areas: end-use energy efficiency, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, renewables, nuclear energy, distributed energy resources, fossil-fuel generation efficiency, and carbon capture and storage from fossil-fueled generation. Much of the needed technology in these areas isn’t available yet – substantial research, development and demonstration would be required to enable the significant CO2 reductions envisioned.

The nuclear energy component encompasses contributions from both existing and new nuclear plants. Continued operation of the existing fleet of nuclear reactors is required to maintain a base level of emission reductions; significant amounts of new nuclear capacity would expand this base to provide more substantial reductions. EPRI’s analysis portrayed the addition of 64 GW of new generating capacity by 2030, 24 GW by 2020 and 4 GW/year thereafter. Despite this large block of new capacity – representing more than one-half of installed nuclear capacity – nuclear’s fraction of total U.S. electricity generation would only climb from 20% to 25% due to electricity demand growth.

More information on the ETAC analysis is available.

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