EPRI Completes Evaluation of Wave Height and Wave Period Forecasting Accuracy
One potential benefit of wave energy as a renewable power source is that it is much more predictable and has much lower ramp rates than wind and solar, as ocean swells propagate for thousands of miles and their change rate is much slower than rates for wind or solar.  A recent EPRI study evaluated wave height and wave period forecasting accuracy as a function of the forecast time horizon for a typical Oregon or northern California wave power plant location.  The study compared the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) operational wind/wave model WAVEWATCH III™ forecast results with wave height and period measurements from an NOAA measurement buoy near Crescent City, CA.  WAVEWATCH III was found to predict the significant wave height and peak wave period with an annual mean absolute accuracy of 0.30–0.35 meter and 1.4–1.5 seconds, respectively, for a forecast time horizon of up to 48 hours.  The researchers believe that WAVEWATCH III is capable of meeting grid integration requirements for day-ahead wave energy forecasting.  For more information, contact Roger Bedard, (520) 979-3275, rbedard@epri.com.